Postseason Shootout | RealTime Fantasy Sports

Lineup Prep: Week 5

Wed Oct 2 8:44am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Thomas is off to a good start

The big item of note this week is the dreaded byes start. We knew it was coming but it still stinks. Losing key players is never fun to deal with but it is part of the game. Just roll with it and put your best lineup out there. Everyone has byes to deal with, so it all evens out in the end. But good luck trying to replace guys like Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown this week. Ouch.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .

While I think Kareem Hunt will get the starting nod and much of the work going forward for the Chiefs, I still don’t have a lot of faith in him from a fantasy perspective. I still think the Chiefs rotate backs and are a pass-first offense. I think Hunt will have some solid game but be hit or miss in his current role. So I wouldn’t break the bank trying to acquire him. He is going to have value but not be a huge weekly play in my view.

I am at the point that I have no idea what will happen at tight end from week to week. It is just a dart throw at this point. I was really hoping some of these tight ends would emerge and post consistent numbers, but I’m not sure that is going to happen. I mean Isaiah Likely is still sixth overall in tight end scoring and has fewer than five points three straight games. It just looks like a boom or bust position on a weekly basis. Just hope you hit on those booms when they happen. This is a really frustrating position right now.

Jayden Daniels is a special, special player. He is the real deal and seems to be getting better every week. Daniels is first overall in fantasy scoring after four games, ranking ahead of all the elite quarterbacks in the NFL. It is pretty amazing to see Daniels starting his career so fast. It really seems like the sky is the limit for Daniels. I would feel great about having him as my QB1 right now.

At this point, I would not count on Christian McCaffrey returning this season. I’m not sure how more was not known before the season but this is looking like one of the all-tine first pick busts. With all the information at our fingertips, it just amazes me how in the dark everyone was when it comes to the injuries McCaffrey was dealing with. And with that said, Jordan Mason sure looks like a No. 1 back in this offense. He has three 100-yard games and double-digit fantasy points every game. He was great insurance for all those McCaffrey owners.

There are three rookie fantasy receivers that rank in the top 15 at receiver. This class is living up to expectations at the receiver position. There is a ton of top talent that is going to be producing big fantasy numbers for years to come. It wouldn’t even surprise me if Malik Nabers, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Brian Thomas are even top 10 by season’s end. These guys are going to be stars and more in this class could emerge as well.

I think Davante Adams would benefit from a trade - pretty much no matter where he lands. Could you imagine if he ends up with the Chiefs, Cowboys or Commanders? His value could go through the roof with any of those teams. This guy still has plenty of talent and a few years left as an elite No. 1 receiver. A change of scenery would be good for him. Let’s get it done.

I really wish Kenneth Walker could just stay healthy. He is such a dynamic back. His play in that Monday night game was so impressive. He is as explosive and dynamic as any back in the game. I just hate that he seems to be battling some sort of injury so often. I think he is a back capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring if everything breaks his way. He is crazy talented.

News and Notes: The Broncos signed running back Salvon Ahmed to their practice squad on Tuesday. Ahmed adds depth to the running back room with Tyler Badie banged up. . . . The Packers are trying out kickers, seeing Chad Ryland and Lucas Havrisik get workouts this week. The team might be looking to replace Brayden Narveson sooner than later. . . . .The NFL suspended linebacker Von Miller four games for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy. He will be eligible to return Week 9.

HOT PLAYS

Brock Purdy, QB, 49ers. His fantasy stats aren’t off the charts this year, but pretty solid for Purdy. He has at least 18.5 fantasy points three straight games. And he has thrown for at least 288 yards all three of those games. He is making big plays in the passing game. Purdy has also done this with a banged up roster. These guys are getting healthy now, which bodes well for Purdy to produce even better numbers. Look for a big game from Purdy this week against the Cardinals, a team that allows the fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Brian Thomas, WR, Jaguars. Thomas has been a bright spot for an erratic Jaguars offense. He has double-digit fantasy points three of four games and his season-low in fantasy points is just 9.8. He topped 20 fantasy points last week and scored his second touchdown of the season. Thomas has nine targets each of the last two games. He should get a workout again this week against the Colts, a team that allows the seventh most fantasy points to receivers.

Javonte Williams, RB, Broncos. Williams has been pretty ho-hum to start the season but does have double-digit fantasy points two of three games. He had his best rushing game of the season last week, running 16 times for 77 yards. Maybe this game gets him going. Williams has a matchup to produce well this week, getting the Raiders. Las Vegas allows the eighth most fantasy points to running backs and are 24th overall against the run. Give Williams a shot as your No. 2 back or flex option in Week 5.

Malik Nabers, WR, Giants. Nabers will have to clear the concussion protocol this week but things are looking up for him to play with the Giants having the Thursday game last week. He seems to be doing fine. With that said, Nabers has become a must start for fantasy owners. He has 20-plus fantasy points three straight games. He has at least 12 targets all three of those games. The volume that Nabers gets on a weekly basis is huge. He is shaping up as the clear No. 1 rookie receiver this season. He gets a good Seahawks defense this week but don’t let that dissuade you from using Nabers. He will get the volume and produce once again in a game the Giants could be playing from behind.

Chuba Hubbard, RB, Panthers. Hubbard is becoming must start for fantasy owners. He got off to a slow start but has quickly put that behind him. He has two straight games with 20-plus fantasy points. Hubbard also has 120-plus total yards each of those two games. The Panthers offense is coming alive with Andy Dalton running the show. Look for another solid game from Hubbard in Week 5. He gets the Bears, a team that allows the 10th most fantasy points to running backs.

COLD PLAYS

Jakobi Meyers, WR, Raiders. Meyers was the No. 1 receiver for the Raiders last week with Davante Adams and had five receptions for 49 yards on 10 targets. He got his looks but didn’t produce a whole lot of fantasy owners. He could be the top target once again this week but that doesn’t mean you have to play him. He has fewer than double-digit fantasy points three of four games and gets a great Broncos secondary to deal with in Week 5. Denver allows the third fewest fantasy points to receivers and has shutdown corner Patrick Surtain shadowing the opposition’s top targets.

Zack Moss, RB, Bengals. Moss has been very solid all season for fantasy owners. He has 14-plus fantasy points three of four games. He has found the end zone three of those games. His yardage numbers have not been very good, though, which is a bit of a concern. He has fewer than 60-rushing yards every game. And last week Chase Brown had a huge game and played his most snaps of the season (40 percent). So Moss carries some risk this week against a good Ravens rush defense. Baltimore is first against the run, allowing just 57.8-rushing yards per game.

Jalen Tolbert, WR, Cowboys. Tolbert has 13-plus fantasy points two of four games. He has been pretty solid as the No. 3 receiver for the Cowboys. He is more of a boom or bust play, though. We aren’t playing him unless he has a prime matchup. And a game this week against the Steelers isn’t a good one for Tolbert. The Steelers allow the ninth fewest fantasy points to tight ends and are ninth overall against the run.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs. Not sure that Mahomes has ever made this list but here we are. Mahomes is just 15th overall in fantasy quarterback scoring and still hasn’t reached 20 fantasy points in any game this season. He has not been helpful to fantasy owners. It is tough to bench him but we would strongly consider it this week. He lost another top receiver last week to injury, which is another concern. And Mahomes plays the Saints this week, a team that allows the eighth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Aaron Jones, RB, Vikings. Jones made our hot list last week but gets the opposite treatment this week. He played a great game last week and has 17-plus fantasy points three of four games. Jones has been very good his first season as the statrer in Minnesota. We worry about him a little this week, though, getting a great Jets defense. New York has allowed fewer than 18 points three straight and allows the eighth fewest fantasy points to running backs. Jones could have a ho-hum showing in this one.

SLEEPERS

Josh Downs, WR, Colts. Downs is healthy and becoming a big part of the Colts passing game. He played 62 percent of the snaps last week and had eight receptions for 82 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. He has been targeted 14 times in his two games this season. He can have another good showing this week against a bad Jaguars defense. Jacksonville is dead last against the pass and allows the fifth most fantasy points to receivers.

D’Andre Swift, RB, Bears. Swift finally came alive last week, finishing with 165 total yards and a touchdown on 23 touches. He did this after some speculative Roschon Johnson might be cutting into his playing time. Well, that didn’t happen last week and Swift played great, so look for him to continue carrying the load. He could produce a similar huge game this week against the Panthers. Carolina allows the second most fantasy points to running backs and is 29th overall against the run, allowing 148.8-rushing yards per game.

Allen Lazard, WR, Jets. Lazard has been a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners. He has double-digit fantasy points three of four games. His floor is decent right now, having at least three receptions all but a game. He gets his looks and is a top red-zone target for the Jets. Aaron Rodgers is familiar with Lazard and looks his way often. He could have another solid game this week, playing the Vikings. The Jets could be behind in this game and have to throw more often to catch up. Plus, Minnesota allows the third most fantasy points to receivers.

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Browns. Jeudy is another receiver kind of flying under the radar. He has been pretty dang consistent, having double-digit fantasy points three of four games. He has two games with 70-plus yards and at least six targets every game. A move to Cleveland has been a positive for Jeudy. Look for him to post another solid game this week against the Commanders. Washington allows the most fantasy points to receivers this season.

Tucker Kraft, TE, Packers. Kraft had his best game of the season last week, catching six passes for 53 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. The return of Jordan Love was a big positive for Kraft and the entire Packers passing game. Kraft has emerged as the go-to tight end for the Packers, playing 86 percent of the snaps last week compared to 33 percent for Luke Musgrave. Kraft is the tight end to play in this offense. He is setup for another solid game this week against the Rams. Los Angeles allows the seventh most fantasy points to tight ends and has struggled defensively much of the season.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Bucs/Falcons, Ravens/Bengals, Bills/Texans, Cardinals/49ers, Colts/Jaguars, Packers/Rams.

Low Scoring Games: Panthers/Bears, Dolphins/Texans, Raiders/Broncos.

Byes: Lions, Chargers, Eagles, Titans.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 5

The Paur Report