RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 12

Sun Nov 27 10:02am ET
By MIKE BARNER
Contributing Writer

No teams will be on a bye for Week 12, which helps offset additional games being played Thursday. Let’s dig into the teams that will take the field for the weekend slate and highlight some players to consider for your DFS lineups, as well as a few to possibly avoid.

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert, LAC at ARI ($7,000): Herbert has dealt with a lot of injuries at wide receiver this season. He began the season by throwing at least two touchdown passes in three of his first four games. Since then, he has thrown at least two touchdowns in just two of six games. However, Keenen Allen is back, and he immediately made an impact with five receptions for 94 yards last week. The Cardinals are tied for the second-most passing touchdowns allowed in the league, so this has the makings of being one of Herbert’s finer performances.

Geno Smith, SEA vs. LV ($6,000): Smith has already set a new career best with his 17 touchdown passes this season. He has at least two touchdown passes in eight of 10 games. This is a great matchup for him against the Raiders, who have allowed the sixth-most passing touchdowns (17) in the league.

Player to Avoid

Aaron Rodgers, GB at PHI ($5,800): The good news with regards to Rodgers is that he has thrown at least two touchdown passes in a game eight times this season. The bad news is that he isn’t racking up many passing yards, throwing for fewer than 230 yards in four of the last five games. The Eagles have only allowed 10 passing touchdowns all season, so if Rodgers can’t produce many scores in this game, his overall stat might be ugly.

Running Backs

Josh Jacobs, LV at SEA ($7,700): Jacobs was busy in a win over the Broncos last week, rushing 24 times for 109 yards. He also caught three of four targets for an additional 51 yards. He already has more rushing yards through 10 games this season (930) than he had over 15 games last season (872). The key is, he has been given at least 20 carries in five of the last seven games. Another juicy stat line could be coming versus a Seahawks team that has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game in the league.

Jeff Wilson Jr., MIA vs. HOU ($5,900): The Texans have allowed the most rushing yards per game and the fifth-most rushing touchdowns in the league. Deploying running backs against them on a weekly basis in DFS has been a sound strategy. It’s not ideal that Wilson has splits carries with Raheem Mostert, but he had 17 carries against the Browns in Week 10, compared to just eight carries for Mostert.

Player to Avoid

Alvin Kamara, NO at SF ($7,300): The 49ers have a great defense. They have been particularly tough against running backs, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. As if this matchup wasn’t discouraging enough, Kamara only has three total touchdowns this season, each of which came in Week 8 against the Raiders.

Wide Receivers

DK Metcalf, SEA vs. LV ($6,500): For those who decide to roll with Smith at quarterback, stacking him with Metcalf is a viable strategy. As previously mentioned, the Raiders have allowed a lot of touchdowns through the air. Metcalf has four receiving touchdowns this season and has been targeted inside the red zone at least one time in each of the last six games.

Terry McLaurin, WAS vs. ATL ($5,800): McLaurin has been more productive since Taylor Heinicke took over at quarterback. With Carson Wentz at the helm for the first six games of the season, McLaurin caught 22 passes for 367 yards and one touchdown. Over five games with Heinicke, he has 28 receptions for 425 yards and a touchdown. The Falcons have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game in the league, potentially setting up McLaurin for another valuable stat line.

Player to Avoid

Allen Lazard, GB at PHI ($5,800): The Packers have certainly been trying to get Lazard involved, throwing him 25 targets over the last three games. The problem is, he only posted a modest 12 receptions for 189 yards and a touchdown. The Eagles have allowed just six touchdown receptions to wide receivers, so Lazard enters this matchup with limited upside.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce, KC vs. LAR ($7,700): With injuries piling up at wide receiver, the Chiefs relied on their star tight end to dispatch the Chargers last week. He was targeted 10 times, finishing with six receptions, 115 yards and three touchdowns. He has recorded at least six receptions and 81 receiving yards in five straight games and has the highest floor of any tight end in the league. 

Foster Moreau, LV at SEA ($3,400): The Seahawks have been torched by tight ends this season, allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the position. Tight ends are averaging 14.9 yards per reception against them, and have caught five touchdown passes. Moreau is averaging 12.0 yards per reception this season, leaving him with a favorable chance to exploit this matchup.

Player to Avoid

Mark Andrews, BAL at JAX ($6,500): This is more about balancing your budget than anything else. With all of the injuries at tight end, it makes sense to either pay up for one of the top-tier options, or just punt this position with a player who has a really cheap salary. For those who don’t want to punt it, Kelce is a safer option than Andrews, who will be playing in his second game since dealing with a shoulder and a knee injury. 

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.

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Player Notes
Jayden Daniels Mar 28 2:50pm ET
Jayden Daniels

LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels had a solid workout during his school's pro day on Wednesday after he chose not to throw at the NFL scouting combine in February. Daniels measured in at 6-foot-3 5/8 and 210 pounds with 9 3/8-inch hands. He didn't run a 40-yard dash or do any other athletic testing, but he completed 52 of his 56 passes. Most of Daniels' misfires came on deeper passes and throws outside the numbers. He appeared to improve as his throwing session went on. "I can't say that it's been an A-plus workout, but it's been solid," NFL Network's Bucky Brooks said. Daniels' pro day session might not have been a game-changer for his outlook, but he was pleased with the results as a whole, and he's still expected to be a top-five pick in the upcoming NFL draft, possibly as early as No. 2 overall to the Washington Commanders.

From RotoBaller

Brian Thomas Jr. Mar 28 2:50pm ET
Brian Thomas Jr.

Although LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. stands in the shadow of teammate Malik Nabers for the upcoming NFL draft, the 6-foot-2 7/8, 209-pounder is viewed as a possible top-20 pick in April. "He's about as naturally talented as you can find at the position," NFL Network's Bucky Brooks said. "Big, fast, physical. Runs great routes. Natural catcher. Does a really good job of watching the ball into his hands. He can shine." The biggest question for Thomas is whether he can step outside the shadow of Nabors and be an alpha dog for an NFL team. Because he didn't work out at LSU's pro day on Wednesday, Thomas may not have answered that question completely, but it doesn't mean that a receiver-needy team won't be willing to take him in the first round in 2024.

From RotoBaller

Josiah Deguara Mar 28 2:30pm ET
Josiah Deguara

Former Green Bay Packers tight end Josiah Deguara signed an undisclosed one-year deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday, according to a source. Deguara will head to the AFC after spending the first four years of his NFL career playing for the Packers. Green Bay took him in the third round (94th overall) in 2020 out of Cincinnati. In his four years with the team, he recorded 47 catches on 58 targets for 436 yards and only two touchdowns in 50 games played (10 starts). In 15 regular-season games (four starts) in 2023, the 27-year-old caught just eight passes for 65 yards and no scores. Deguara will mostly be useful to the Jaguars for his blocking skills on offense and on special teams, so fantasy managers shouldn't expect him to make an impact catching the ball behind Evan Engram, the team's top pass-catching tight end.

From RotoBaller

Ed Oliver Mar 28 2:30pm ET
Ed Oliver

The Buffalo Bills signed free-agent defensive tackle DeShawn Williams to an undisclosed one-year deal on Thursday. Williams will give the Bills continued depth for their defensive tackle room that went into free agency with just Ed Oliver and Eli Ankou under contract. The 31-year-old Williams played in 16 games (10 starts) for the Carolina Panthers last year and finished with 33 tackles (13 solo) and seven QB hits. He entered the NFL as an undrafted free agent in 2016 with the Cincinnati Bengals out of Clemson, and the Bills will be the fourth different team he's played for in six seasons. In total, Williams has racked up 148 tackles (72 solo), nine sacks, 11 tackles for loss, 30 QB hits, one interception and nine passes defended in 66 games (44 starts). Williams will be off the IDP fantasy radar.

From RotoBaller

Michael Hoecht Mar 28 2:10pm ET
Michael Hoecht

The Los Angeles Rams re-signed linebacker Michael Hoecht to an undisclosed deal earlier this week. Hoecht didn't receive any offers from other teams this offseason after the Rams placed a right-of-first-refusal tender on him. The 26-year-old entered the NFL in 2021 with the Rams as an undrafted free agent out of Brown University and he has 124 tackles (74 solo), 10.5 sacks, 11 tackles for loss, 20 QB hits and two forced fumbles in 51 games (26 starts) in his three seasons in the league. Last year he started in all 17 regular-season games for LA and recorded a career-high 81 tackles (45 solo), a career-high six sacks, seven tackles for loss, 11 QB hits and a forced fumble.

From RotoBaller

J.K. Dobbins Mar 28 11:00am ET
J.K. Dobbins

Free-agent running back J.K. Dobbins (Achilles) is scheduled to visit with the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. The former Baltimore Raven suffered a torn Achilles early in the 2023 campaign, but he was cleared for football activities this week, so he will likely start drawing more interest on the free-agent market. Originally a second-round pick by Baltimore in the 2020 NFL Draft out of Ohio State, Dobbins posted 805 rushing yards and nine scores on just 134 attempts (6.0 YPC) as a rookie, but he missed the entire 2021 campaign with a torn ACL. He averaged 5.7 yards per carry in 2022 and saw his 2023 season end after just eight rushing attempts with an Achilles injury. Given his injury woes early in his career, it's fair to be concerned about his future production. Regardless of his landing spot, he's likely to be eased into action, meaning his fantasy upside is capped early in 2024.

From RotoBaller

Geno Smith Mar 27 8:10pm ET
Geno Smith

The Seattle Seahawks are looking to make some additions to their offensive line this offseason. Recently, Seahawks general manager John Schneider said the team has a lot to figure out on the o-line. This team is without left guard Damien Lewis and right guard Phil Haynes who both left for free agency. Possibly, the Seahawks use the 16th overall pick in the draft to add some offensive line. It appears Seattle is still looking to compete next season with Geno Smith slated to be under center. Most of the Seahawks offensive weapons are back, but this team could be in serious trouble if they don't patch up their o-line soon.

From RotoBaller

Nate Sudfeld Mar 27 8:00pm ET
Nate Sudfeld

The Detroit Lions have re-signed quarterback Nate Sudfeld on Wednesday. The 30-year-old served as the backup to Jared Goff during the 2022 season. He was slated to compete with Teddy Bridgewater, but he has retired this offseason. That being said, Sudfeld figures to compete with Hendon Hooker for the backup job in Detroit next season. The former sixth-round pick has played in six games since debuting in 2017. Sudfeld won't offer any fantasy value heading into next season.

From RotoBaller

Malik Nabers Mar 27 4:50pm ET
Malik Nabers

Former LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers impressed at the University's Pro Day on Wednesday, running an unofficial 4.35 40-yard dash and excelling in both the vertical jump (42") and broad jump (10'9"). The 20-year-old is coming off a spectacular junior campaign consisting of catching 89 passes for 1,569 yards and 14 touchdowns. His excellent athletic testing numbers certainly won't hurt his draft stock, and many analysts believe he could be taken ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr. in the 2024 NFL Draft next month. Nabers has visited or will visit with the Arizona Cardinals, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, New England Patriots, New York Jets, and New York Giants this week.

From RotoBaller

Jadeveon Clowney Mar 27 4:30pm ET
Jadeveon Clowney

Free-agent edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney is signing a two-year, $24 million contract with the Carolina Panthers, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. The 2014 No. 1 overall pick spent last season with the Baltimore Ravens, and it was one of the best campaigns of his career. He tied a career-high with 9.5 sacks and did not miss a game for the first time since 2017. The 31-year-old still has plenty of ability, but his surroundings in Carolina won't be as strong as they were with the Ravens. The South Carolina native is now closer to home, and he'll look to help the struggling franchise accelerate its rebuild in 2024.

From RotoBaller

Jalyn Holmes Mar 27 3:20pm ET
Jalyn Holmes

The New York Jets re-signed defensive end Jalyn Holmes to an undisclosed deal on Wednesday. The Minnesota Vikings originally took Holmes with their fourth-round selection (102nd overall) in 2018 out of Ohio State. He spent the first three years of his career in Minnesota before one-year stops with the New Orleans Saints, Chicago Bears and Jets each of the last three seasons. In just five games in New York in 2023, the 28-year-old pass-rusher had five tackles (three solo) and one sack. Holmes' first defensive snaps for the Jets last year didn't come until the regular season finale. He will be competing for a depth role once again on the team's defensive line in training camp this summer.

From RotoBaller

Neville Hewitt Mar 27 3:10pm ET
Neville Hewitt

The Houston Texans and free-agent linebacker Neville Hewitt, who led the league in 2023 in special teams tackles, reached an agreement on an undisclosed one-year deal on Wednesday, according to a source. In 16 regular-season games (zero starts) last year in his third year with the Texans, Hewitt had 14 tackles (eight solo). The 30-year-old was a standout on special teams but played just four defensive snaps and is unlikely to be a big part of Houston's defense again in 2024. In his nine-year NFL career with the Texans, Miami Dolphins and New York Jets, Hewitt has recorded a total of 440 tackles (284 solo), 7.5 sacks, 22 tackles for loss, 19 QB hits, three interceptions, 13 passes defended, two forced fumble and a fumble recovery in 129 games (44 starts).

From RotoBaller

Sam Franklin Mar 27 3:10pm ET
Sam Franklin

The Carolina Panthers re-signed safety and special teams ace Sam Franklin on an undisclosed one-year deal on Wednesday, according to a source. Franklin, a former undrafted free agent out of Temple, began his NFL career in 2020 with the Panthers and has spent all four of his NFL seasons with the organization. The 28-year-old defensive back had a career-high 30 tackles (20 solo) and an interception returned for a touchdown in 17 games (four starts) in his fourth year in Carolina in 2023. Franklin played 310 snaps on special teams and will likely continue in that role in his fifth year with the team in 2024. In his four NFL campaigns, Franklin has just 97 tackles (69 solo), one sack, the interception returned for a score, five passes defended and a force fumble in 64 games (nine starts).

From RotoBaller

Jayden Daniels Mar 27 3:00pm ET
Jayden Daniels

The Las Vegas Raiders may be targeting a quarterback that can escape the pocket and pick up chunk gains with his legs in the upcoming NFL draft. When asked what type of QB gives opposing defenses the most problems from his experience as a former linebacker, head coach Anthony Pierce said, "A damn runner." The Raiders are scheduled to meet with LSU QB and reigning Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels on Wednesday after his pro-day workout. Daniels threw for 3,812 yards and 40 touchdowns for the Tigers last year and also ran for 1,134 yards and 10 touchdowns. In order to snag Daniels, the Raiders will likely have to move up from 13th overall in the first round, and the team has expressed the willingness to do what it takes to make that happen. Pierce recruited Daniels out of Southern California five years ago to play at Arizona State, so he's very familiar with him.

From RotoBaller

Talanoa Hufanga Mar 27 3:00pm ET
Talanoa Hufanga

The San Francisco 49ers expect safety Talanoa Hufanga (knee) to return from his ACL injury "sometime in training camp" this summer, according to head coach Kyle Shanahan. The head coach also sounded optimistic about Hufanga's ability to return to 100 percent of his old self. The Niners would like to add a safety, but they told recent visitor Julian Blackmon that a new addition wouldn't necessarily be guaranteed a starting spot in 2024. Hufanga probably won't be ready to go for Day 1 of training camp as he works his way back from a torn ACL that he suffered in Week 11 of 2023. The 24-year-old defensive back is one of the rising young options at his position in IDP fantasy leagues when healthy. Hufanga had 52 tackles and three interceptions last year before suffering his season-ending injury.

From RotoBaller

Tank Bigsby Mar 27 2:50pm ET
Tank Bigsby

It's clear that the Jacksonville Jaguars want to keep lead running back Travis Etienne Jr. fresh for the entire season in 2024. In the final six games in 2023, the Jaguars averaged just 79 yards per game on the ground. They finished 23rd overall with 96.8 yards per game on the ground. In an effort to keep Etienne fresher, part of the team's plan in the run game is getting second-year back Tank Bigsby more involved. He played just 141 snaps in his rookie season, carrying the ball 50 times for 132 yards and two touchdowns. A couple of fluky turnovers ensured he didn't see much more time down the stretch. "We have to get Tank going, the bottom line. He is too good, that's why we drafted him. I think early he had some 'what is that' type plays for whatever reason right or wrong. Again, in and out of the lineup," said head coach Doug Pederson.

From RotoBaller

Josh Reynolds Mar 27 2:40pm ET
Josh Reynolds

Former Detroit Lions wide receiver Josh Reynolds signed a two-year deal worth up to $14 million with the Denver Broncos on Wednesday, according to a source. The Broncos have been one of the most quiet teams in free agency this year, with Reynolds being their biggest addition by far. The 29-year-old will help replace Jerry Jeudy, who was traded to the Cleveland Browns. Reynolds caught 40 of his 64 targets last year in Detroit for 608 yards and five touchdowns in 17 regular-season games. Courtland Sutton will remain Denver's unquestioned No. 1 wideout, but Reynolds has a chance to be their No. 2 if he can beat out Tim Patrick (Achilles) and Marvin Mims Jr. in training camp. With either quarterback Jarrett Stidham or a rookie running the Broncos' offense in 2024, there won't be much fantasy upside for Reynolds in his new home.

From RotoBaller

Cordarrelle Patterson Mar 27 3:13am ET
Cordarrelle Patterson

Dynasty | The Steelers have signed utility player Cordarrelle Patterson. Dynasty Analysis: A lightning rod in dynasty leagues seemingly for his entire career, Patterson lands with the Steelers hours after the NFL adopted new kickoff return rules. It's going to be interesting to see just how Pittsburgh employs him as he can obviously return kicks but also help out at running back or receiver. In the end, it's hard to see much value from Patterson, especially in dynasty leagues. However, he's certainly a player to monitor as his role becomes more and more clear.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Uchenna Nwosu Mar 26 11:20pm ET
Uchenna Nwosu

Seattle Seahawks president of football operations John Schneider said that both offensive tackle Abraham Lucas (knee) and linebacker Uchenna Nwosu (pectoral) are on track to be ready for the start of the 2024 season. Schneider is unsure if safety Jerrick Reed II (knee) will be ready, but he did say that Reed's rehab has gone well. Lucas, 25, had knee surgery at the end of last season, but he should be ready to go as the team's right tackle later this fall. Nwosu, 27, suffered a torn pectoral muscle in 2023 that limited him to six games. Getting the former second-round pick in 2018 out of USC back will be big news for Seattle's pass rush in 2024, as Nwosu picked up career-highs in combined tackles (66), sacks (9.5), tackles for loss (12) and QB hits (26) in 17 starts in 2022 in his first year in Seattle.

From RotoBaller

Mazi Smith Mar 26 11:10pm ET
Mazi Smith

Dallas Cowboys nose tackle Mazi Smith (shoulder) carried a four- to six-month timetable after having shoulder surgery shortly after last season, but he is expected to be ready for training camp this summer. As long as Smith doesn't encounter any setbacks as he rehabs his shoulder this offseason, the 22-year-old should be ready for training camp at the end of the July and for the start of the 2024 season. After being taken 26th overall in the first round last year out of Michigan, Smith played in all 17 regular-season games (three starts) and recorded only 13 tackles (nine solo) and one sack in a depth role. He could carve out a bigger role on the interior of Dallas' defensive line in Year 2, but Smith isn't going to be on the fantasy radar in IDP leagues.

From RotoBaller