Lineup Prep: Championship Games

Wed Jan 24 8:44am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Gibbs can produce big this week


Last week was sure entertaining. Let’s hope the games this week are just as good. I sure think it is possible. The matchups seems pretty even to me. I know the 49ers are pretty good favorites against the Lions at home, but I think Detroit can keep it close. And the Chiefs/Ravens game is setup to be fantastic. These teams are both rolling right now. We get to see two of the greatest quarterbacks in football battle it out to make the Super Bowl. This should be fun.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . 

Those were some games last week. It was fun to watch, especially that Chiefs/Bills game. You have to feel for Josh Allen. He had a great run in the playoffs, but just can’t get over that Kansas City hump. It was there for the taking last week for Allen, but his field goal kicker let him down. I still think Allen is an elite level quarterback than can win the big game. It will come for him sooner than later. He is just running into a buzz saw with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs right now.

I don’t think Brock Purdy silenced the doubters after last week’s game. He was not great until that last game-winning drive. He still looked a little shaky to me most of that game. And the loss of Deebo Samuel could be huge for him and the offense. Samuel seems to be a calming influence for Purdy. I am interested to see him play this week. This could be make or break for him.

Aaron Jones sure is a difference maker when healthy. He was unbelievable for the Packers down the stretch, having five straight 100-yard rushing games. The issue is Jones is hard to trust because of his injury history and age. He is 29 years old and missed five games each of the last two seasons and played a full season just once the last five years. I love his talent, but have a hard time taking him on draft day - even after his huge finish to this season.

I’m happy for Baker Mayfield. He seems to have found a home after a rocky start to his career. He was terrific for the Bucs with that great group of receivers. And he almost played that team into the NFC Championship game last week, throwing three more touchdown passes. I don’t see the Bucs letting him loose and I think he could be a top-10 fantasy quarterback once again next season in Tampa. I don’t think it was a fluke this year.

I am really hoping the Texans make a run at Saquon Barkley this offseason. Could you imagine him in that offense? I think he would be a great fit and a huge spark for that running game in Houston. I think this would just be an ideal landing spot for Barkley when it comes to his fantasy value. Let’s make this happen!

The Ravens have a great team and are the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but can you imagine that offense with a healthy JK Dobbins or Keaton Mitchell all season. Both these backs are difference makers in my eyes and big upgrades over what they are using right now. I still think Dobbins can be a star in this league. Just something to keep in mind next season when these guys are back playing.

I like the Titans hire of Brian Callahan as their next head coach. He should be a positive for that offense, especially quarterback Will Levis. Hopefully, he can take this offense to a new level and give us a bunch of fantasy relevant players. Callahan is a bright, young offensive mind that has been integral in the development of Joe Burrow. Let’s hope he can do the same for Levis.

News and Notes: The Lions signed tight end Zach Ertz to their practice squad on Monday. Ertz gives the Lions depth at the position after an injury to Brock Wright.

HOT PLAYS

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. With Deebo Samuel very iffy to play, Aiyuk should be the top target at receiver for the 49ers this week. He didn’t do much last week, but was targeted six times in the game, which was encouraging. He gets a much better matchup this week against the Lions, a team that has allowed five straight 300-yard passing games. Aiyuk can have a big showing in this matchup.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions. Gibbs had a big game last week, topping 100 total yards while scoring a touchdown. He has touchdowns each of the first two playoff games for the Lions. He has 16-plus fantasy points each of those games. Gibbs is playing well and should be heavily involved in the offense again this week. The 49ers have been great against the run much of the year, but shown some issues stopping the run lately. San Francisco allowed 136-rushing yards last week and given up 100-plus rushing yards four of five games.

COLD PLAYS 

Jared Goff, QB, Lions. Goff had a great overall season, but his fantasy numbers haven’t been too off the charts. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points three of five games. He is getting his yards, but the Lions tend to run the ball in more for scores than pass. He might be an iffy fantasy play this week against the 49ers. San Francisco allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to quarterback during the regular season.

Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens. Edwards has failed to score each of his last two games, giving him really poor fantasy numbers. He has fewer than six fantasy points each of his last two games, failing to hit 50-rushing yards each of those games. Edwards could have a similar showing this week against the Chiefs, a team that allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to running backs. Kansas City allowed just 10-rushing touchdowns all season.

SLEEPERS

Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens. Bateman had three receptions for 39 yards on three targets last week. He had a solid game but failed to hit double-digit fantasy points once again. The good news is he got his looks once again. The Chiefs have a very good pass defense, but Bateman could have more favorable coverages than Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham. Those guys should draw the tougher assignments, leaving Bateman a chance to make some big plays in the passing game. He could surprise this week.

Justice Hill, RB, Ravens. Hill led the Ravens in rushing last week, including rushing attempts. He got more work than starter Gus Edwards. Hill had 15 touches for 77 total yards. He could be setup for a similar workload in what could be a high-scoring fantasy teams. This means Hill could have a big fantasy showing. At this point, we might trust Hill more than Edwards, who is a more touchdown dependent player.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Chiefs/Ravens, Lions/49ers.

Low Scoring Games: None.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Top Headlines
The Paur Report

Monday Night DFS Pickem Plays

Player Notes
Noah Brown Sep 24 8:50am CT
Noah Brown

Washington Commanders wide receiver Noah Brown caught three passes for 29 yards on three targets in the team's win over Cincinnati on Monday night. The former Cowboys wide receiver was involved mostly in the short passing game for Jayden Daniels. Terry McLaurin was by far the most productive Washington wide receiver in this game but Brown did have a role to play on the outside. With Luke McCaffrey as the slot receiver, Brown could become more involved as the outside receiver opposite McLaurin. But Daniels looks to run often and there aren't a ton of opportunities for receivers to make big plays in this offense. It's best to leave Brown on the fantasy waiver wire.

From RotoBaller

Mike Gesicki Sep 24 8:40am CT
Mike Gesicki

Cincinnati Bengals tight end Mike Gesicki had four catches for 47 yards on five targets in the team's Monday night loss to Washington. Gesicki did not find the end zone but was decently productive as the team's third-leading receiver behind Ja'Marr Chase and Andrei Iosivas. Gesicki has always been a big red-zone threat so a lot of his value is dependent on him scoring touchdowns, which is not uncommon for fantasy tight ends. Backup tight end Erick All, Jr., caught all four of his targets, which cut into Gesicki's production a bit in this one. The veteran tight end, however, should be a threat week-to-week to find the end zone and remains on the fantasy radar at the position although he is not a weekly starter.

From RotoBaller

Chase Brown Sep 24 8:30am CT
Chase Brown

Cincinnati Bengals running back Chase Brown rushed seven times for 62 yards to lead the team in rushing in a loss to Washington on Monday night. Brown was out-carried 12-7 by starter Zack Moss but was the more efficient runner on Monday night. Moss got the 1-yard TD at the end of the game and was more effective in the receiving game. Brown did catch two passes for seven yards on three targets. The 8.9 yards per carry is a positive sign for the second-year back as he looks to establish more of a role for himself. The Bengals are going to use both Moss and Brown so Brown's production figures to fluctuate game-to-game. Brown is a great handcuff and has some standalone value but he is not yet a fantasy starter in most weeks.

From RotoBaller

Curtis Samuel Sep 24 8:20am CT
Curtis Samuel

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Curtis Samuel did not factor heavily into the Bills Week 3 offensive output against Jacksonville. The Bills put up 47 points but Samuel had three catches for 22 yards and one rush for no gain. Josh Allen and the Bills spread the ball around in this one and Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, and Ty Johnson each caught a touchdown pass and James Cook and Ray Davis scored rushing TDs. Samuel hasn't found a consistent piece of the Bills offensive pie yet this season after coming over from Washington in the offseason. With so many offensive weapons, it's hard to see Samuel making a big fantasy impact this season.

From RotoBaller

Gabriel Davis Sep 24 8:10am CT
Gabriel Davis

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Gabe Davis saw six targets against the Buffalo Bills on Monday night but could only turn those into two catches for 18 yards. Christian Kirk and Brian Thomas, Jr., saw most of the targets for the Jaguars as they were routed by the Bills in Buffalo. Davis was unable to get loose against his former team in this one. Even at his most productive in Buffalo, Davis was a boom-or-bust fantasy option. The big-play threat has yet to break free for a long catch from Trevor Lawrence this season. With Kirk and Thomas ahead of him on the receiving pecking order and tight end Evan Engram (hamstring) likely to take targets away from him upon his return, Davis is best left on the waiver wire.

From RotoBaller

Brian Thomas Jr. Sep 24 1:00am CT
Brian Thomas Jr.

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. caught five of nine targets in a 47-10 loss to the Buffalo Bills. The rookie first-round receiver had a solid outing despite the blowout and looks like a high upside fantasy option in the future for patient fantasy managers. The Jaguars offense has struggled through three weeks, but BTJ has been solid despite that. In Week 1, BTJ caught a touchdown, in Week 2, he had 94 yards receiving, and in Week 3, he had his most targets and receptions so far. If the LSU product can put it all together, he could be in for a big game very soon. Given his baseline talent level, despite being a part of a rough offense, the rookie receiver should continue to serve as a high upside flex option going forward. BTJ and the Jaguars offense faces yet another tough defense in the Houston Texans in Week 4.

From RotoBaller

Christian Kirk Sep 24 12:50am CT
Christian Kirk

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Christian Kirk was the team's best performer in an otherwise rough night in a 47-10 loss to the Buffalo Bills. The Jaguars put up a stinker on Monday Night Football, but fantasy managers who kept faith in Kirk should be happy with an eight catch, 79 yard performance, especially in PPR leagues. That led the team in both categories, a drastic turn from his two catches for 29 yards in the first two games. Despite the good performance, it will still be hard to trust Kirk going forward giving how bad the Jaguars offense has looked so far. The matchups will also not get any easier over the next few weeks, so expectations should remain low for Kirk and the Jaguars offense. However, the former Arizona Cardinal could maintain a WR3 level in PPR leagues if he continues to earn targets. Kirk will look to build on this bounce back performance in Week 4 against the Houston Texans.

From RotoBaller

Travis Etienne Sep 24 12:40am CT
Travis Etienne

Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. was solid despite game script being against him in a 47-10 loss to the Buffalo Bills. Etienne Jr. didn't get a touchdown this week for the first time this season, but he put up a solid 68 yards rushing on 11 attempts as well as 17 yards on four receptions. The Clemson product has maintained an RB2 level so far this season, as given the Jaguars offense is struggling, his upside is limited. The Jaguars have faced three good defenses so far, but either way, the offense has not looked good at all. Etienne Jr. has been one of the few bright spots of the offense, and if it can manage to get going anytime soon, he may be in for a big game. For now, the 25-year-old back will struggle to stand out in fantasy, but will maintain a solid floor heading into a Week 4 matchup with the Houston Texans.

From RotoBaller

Brenton Strange Sep 24 12:40am CT
Brenton Strange

Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Brenton Strange only caught two passes, but one was for the team's only touchdown in a 47-10 loss to the Buffalo Bills. He finished with 17 yards receiving, catching two of his five targets. Taking over for Evan Engram once again, Strange was a little quieter from a yards perspective compared to last week, but the touchdown gave him a respectable fantasy output. The second-year tight end will likely move back to his original role of clear backup to Engram once the starter returns from injury, but for now, Strange is a solid starting option for teams in desperate need of tight end help, which seems to be most fantasy managers so far this season. As with most tight ends, Strange has a low floor but enough of a ceiling where he is a startable option as long as Engram is out. He will look to catch another touchdown in a Week 4 matchup with the Houston Texans.

From RotoBaller

Keon Coleman Sep 24 12:20am CT
Keon Coleman

Head coach Sean McDermott revealed that Buffalo Bills wide receiver Keon Coleman was benched for the first quarter due to punctuality issues. "This will serve as a learning opportunity for him," McDermott stated after the game. "It was a matter of being on time. He understands his responsibility to his teammates. We've addressed it, we support him, and now we move forward. I thought he played well tonight." Coleman made an impact after entering the game in the second quarter, scoring his first career touchdown and helping the Bills secure a decisive 47-10 victory. The 24-yard touchdown was his only target of the evening. Coleman participated in 19 out of 60 offensive snaps, which amounts to just 31.66%. However, heading into Week 3, he led all Bills wide receivers with 83 offensive snaps, outpacing the next closest receiver, Mack Hollins, by 16. Coleman also topped the team in routes run and was second in targets before his benching. With the Bills' offense performing at a high level, Coleman could be a solid flex option in favorable matchupsprovided he arrives on time, of course.

From RotoBaller

Trevor Lawrence Sep 24 12:20am CT
Trevor Lawrence

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence put up yet another underwhelming performance in a 47-10 loss to the Buffalo Bills. He finished with 178 passing yards, completing 21 of his 38 passing attempts. He threw one touchdown and one interception. The Jaguars offense just hasn't worked so far this season, and Lawrence has not looked great throughout. This is his second game with less than 200 yards passing, and he only has two touchdowns in three games. Even the potential rushing upside he has added during his career just hasn't materialized this season. The former number one pick is a player that can be dropped at this point in most leagues. His early schedule has been tough, but he isn't providing enough of a floor to be trusted at all to start in fantasy lineups. Lawrence has yet another tough road matchup in Week 4 when he faces the Houston Texans.

From RotoBaller

Jayden Daniels Sep 24 12:13am CT
Jayden Daniels

Dynasty | Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels completed 21-of-23 passes for 254 yards, with two touchdowns and no interceptions, adding 39 rushing yards and another touchdown in a road win against the Bengals. Dynasty Analysis: Uhh, what? Daniels set the rookie record for completion percentage in a game and looked calm, cool, and collected in the process. If there were any doubts about his transition to the NFL, they were answered tonight as Daniels routinely made play after play on the road against a team absolutely desperate for a win. Daniels looks like the player we thought Anthony Richardson could be last year and has the looks of a long-term QB1 already. The buying window has closed.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Zack Moss Sep 24 12:13am CT
Zack Moss

Dynasty | Bengals running back Zack Moss had 58 rushing yards, five catches, 39 receiving yards and a touchdown in a loss against the Commanders. Dynasty Analysis: Moss again out-touched Chase Brown, this time 17-9. Unfortunately, Brown was solid himself so this is looking more and more like a 60/40 timeshare moving forward. Regardless, this was game Moss needed to have and he's looked like a solid addition for Cincinnati as they try to fill the shoes of Joe Mixon on the cheap. Moss will be a low-end RB2 moving forward.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Trevor Lawrence Sep 24 12:13am CT
Trevor Lawrence

Dynasty | Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence completed just 21-of-38 passes for 178 yards with one touchdown and one interception in a humiliating loss to the Bills. Dynasty Analysis: The Jaguars were cooked to the tune of a 47-10 score where they were outplayed in every aspect of the game. Lawrence himself looks out of synch and has no rhythm with his new receiving corps. With just two touchdown passes through three weeks, Lawrence is looking like a poor game manager and player expected to do way too much with way too little at the moment. He belongs on fantasy benches in what's looking like a lost season. Lawrence's dynasty value is also sinking as it's fair to wonder if he really is as good as many thought he was coming out of Clemson.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Keon Coleman Sep 24 12:13am CT
Keon Coleman

Dynasty | Bills rookie receiver Keon Coleman had a 24-yard touchdown catch in the Bills 47-10 demolition of Jacksonville. Dynasty Analysis: Unfortunately, it was Coleman's only target on the night. With just seven targets through three games, it's clear the BIlls are bringing him along slowly. Khalil Shakir is starting to establish himself as the top option and that's going to keep Coleman as a dynasty stash for the time being. While he doesn't belong near lineups at the moment, we can see the talent and dynasty managers are going to need to simply stay patient. Coleman could be a savvy manager's buy low at the moment.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Mark Andrews Sep 24 12:10am CT
Mark Andrews

Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh has warned Mark Andrews' managers that they're in a turbulent ride. Andrews has been a source of frustration for fantasy owners, and Harbaugh indicated that this situation is unlikely to improve soon. He mentioned that the tight end position will see rotation, and snap counts will vary according to the team's game strategy. Last week, Andrews was on the field for only 33 percent of the snaps due to the Ravens utilizing "heavy" personnel packages. Given Harbaugh's comments, it will be challenging to depend on Andrews for consistent production week after week. A tight end participating in just a third of the snaps isn't positioned to deliver major stats in fantasy leagues. While Andrews' managers shouldn't feel the need to drop him outright, it makes sense to consider benching him until there's more clarity regarding the tight-end rotation. The challenge lies in discovering any viable alternatives in the current tight-end nightmare.

From RotoBaller

Zac Taylor Sep 23 11:50pm CT
Zac Taylor

Cincinnati Bengals right tackle Trent Brown (knee) exited Monday night's game with a knee injury. He was seen in the locker room with a full brace on his right leg and using crutches after the game. Brown went down during a pass protection play in the second quarter, immediately grabbing his right knee before being carted off the field. His fellow offensive linemen helped him onto the cart, offering their best wishes as he was taken to the X-ray room with 6:25 left in the half. The veteran was making his third start of the season after signing a one-year contract worth up to $4.75 million during the offseason, following three years with the New England Patriots. When asked about Brown's condition in the postgame press conference, Bengals coach Zac Taylor remarked, "It doesn't look good." Rookie Amarius Mims, who had just taken his first NFL snap six plays earlier during a field goal drive, stepped in to replace Brown. Mims, the team's first-round pick this year, is expected to step up effectively. Before his preseason injury, he was tentatively set to be the starting right tackle, and now that he's healthy, he's ready to fulfill the expectations that come with his draft status.

From RotoBaller

Ray Davis Sep 23 11:30pm CT
Ray Davis

Buffalo Bills running back Ray Davis rushed seven times for 22 yards and a touchdown in the team's 47-10 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. He also caught one pass for one yard. Davis' first NFL touchdown came with just over four minutes remaining in the game to put the Bills ahead by 37 points. With the victory in hand, Josh Allen and other starters had already moved to the bench. With a healthy James Cook and Ty Johnson filling in on third downs, Davis isn't anything more than a complementary running back in the Buffalo offense. Fantasy managers should view him as insurance in case Cook gets injured.

From RotoBaller

Keon Coleman Sep 23 11:20pm CT
Keon Coleman

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Keon Coleman saw just one target on Monday Night Football, but he made the most of it. The rookie scored his first NFL touchdown on a 24-yard catch midway through the second quarter. That was Josh Allen's second passing touchdown of the night and the Bills' third score overall. By halftime, the Bills built a 27-point lead, and Coleman did not need to be involved any further to secure the victory. James Cook, Khalil Shakir, and Dalton Kincaid are ahead of Coleman in the offensive pecking order, keeping Coleman as a boom/bust wide receiver in Week 4 against Baltimore.

From RotoBaller

Dalton Kincaid Sep 23 11:20pm CT
Dalton Kincaid

Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid caught three passes for 41 yards and a touchdown in the team's 47-10 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Josh Allen kept a first-quarter play alive with his legs and found Kincaid in the back of the endzone for a six-yard score. Earlier on that drive, Allen connected with Kincaid on a 28-yard gain. The reception total is still on the lower side, but the Bills barely threw in the second half with a 27-point lead that eventually ballooned to 37. With the touchdown, Kincaid finished as a top-five fantasy football tight end in Week 3. He'll hope to keep that status in Week 4 against the Baltimore Ravens.

From RotoBaller